Daily Drop (536): Mexico: RU Activities, China: UnderSea Cables, China BRI: Attarat Power Plant, AI Chips: Samsung, OpenAI, Taiwan: Arms Sales, India: Lunar Launch, Austria: RU Gas, Killnet: For Hire
07-09-23
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The Russians in Mexico
Analyst Comments: The sudden surge in the number of Russian diplomats in Mexico is concerning and likely indicates an expansion in espionage activities. This can potentially undermine U.S. interests in the region and destabilize Western democracy in Latin America as a broader strategy by Russia. Such activities also underscore Russia's continued use of diplomatic channels for intelligence operations, a trend seen globally. It also demonstrates how geopolitics and international conflicts, like the Ukraine invasion, can have ripple effects that impact far-reaching regions like Latin America.
FROM THE MEDIA: There has been a significant increase in Russian diplomatic personnel in Mexico since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about an uptick in espionage activities. U.S. General Glen VanHerck claimed last year that Mexico had the largest number of spies globally. These concerns were reinforced when the Russian embassy in Mexico reportedly accredited 36 new diplomats, leading to a nearly 60% increase in Russian diplomats in the country. These actions, combined with the historical precedent of Russia using diplomatic figures to infiltrate spies, especially during times of war, have led to increasing concerns about Russian influence in the region and potential threats to U.S. interests.
READ THE STORY: Mexico Daily Post
China’s cyber behavior is reflected in the subsea cables ecosystem
Analyst Comments: The approach taken by China is strategic, focusing on expanding its digital influence while protecting its digital sovereignty. This strategy benefits China economically and positions it as a major player in the global digital infrastructure market. However, this approach has its challenges, as concerns about surveillance, espionage, and data security create significant global distrust. As the global reliance on digital infrastructure and data grows, international policies and strategies need to be developed to ensure the security and integrity of these systems.
FROM THE MEDIA: China's approach to digitalization is distinct and characterized by cost-effectiveness, the maintenance of digital sovereignty, and strong government control over private companies. This extends from cyberspace to the subsea cables ecosystem. China's Digital Silk Road (DSR) and the role of companies like Huawei Marine Networks Co. (HMN Tech) are key in this strategy, appealing especially to the Global South through competitive pricing and infrastructure development. However, China's practice of limiting data flow out of its digital space, as well as the government's tight control over tech giants, raises global concerns about potential espionage and surveillance. As the world increasingly depends on data, undersea cables become a strategic asset. The alleged sabotage of Taiwan's Matsu Island's subsea cables highlights that these systems are becoming a new battlefield in the U.S.-China tech war.
READ THE STORY: Modern Diplomacy
Troubled New Power Plant Leaves Jordan in Debt to China, Raising Concerns Over Beijing's Influence
Analyst Comments: The Attarat power plant in Jordan exemplifies the challenges and risks associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative. The project, which was initially intended to provide Jordan with energy independence, has resulted in significant financial burdens for the country due to the high cost of the plant and the long-term commitment to purchase electricity at inflated prices. Jordan's pursuit of energy self-sufficiency and investment from China turned out to be a costly and unnecessary endeavor. This case serves as a cautionary tale for other countries considering large-scale infrastructure projects funded by China, highlighting the importance of careful assessment and negotiation to ensure sustainable economic outcomes and avoid falling into a debt trap.
FROM THE MEDIA: The Attarat power plant in Jordan, a project intended to provide the country with energy and strengthen ties with China, has become a source of controversy and debt for the Jordanian government. The $2.1 billion shale oil plant, funded by Chinese loans, is no longer needed for energy production due to other agreements made since the project's conception. Jordan is now obligated to pay China a staggering $8.4 billion over 30 years to purchase electricity from the plant. The deal has fueled tensions between China and Jordan and has led the Jordanian government to contest the agreement in an international legal battle. This case highlights the potential risks associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative, as it burdens some countries with crippling debt.
READ THE STORY: VOA
Samsung: AI chip stock frenzy needs a reality check
Analyst Comments: The drop in Samsung's projected earnings indicates that the transition from AI investment to profitability can be longer and more complex than initially expected. This reality is compounded by factors such as a glut of chips due to previous stockpiling and a decrease in demand for smartphones and computers as remote working declines. The case serves as a reminder for investors to approach AI-related investments with an understanding of the broader technological, economic, and market trends affecting a company's performance.
FROM THE MEDIA: Samsung’s second-quarter earnings guidance shows a significant drop, suggesting that the anticipated AI-driven growth will take longer than expected to translate into profits. Operating profit is expected to have plummeted 96%, marking a 14-year low, while sales are anticipated to have decreased by 22% to ₩60tn ($46bn). The company's chip business is expected to report an operating loss of at least ₩3.3tn. This downturn in earnings goes against investors’ expectations of a surge in chip demand from AI-related industries, which led to a 25% increase in Samsung shares this year. Despite the current setback, in the long run, Samsung's positioning as the world's largest maker of smartphones and TVs provides a potential buffer that other chipmakers may not possess.
READ THE STORY: FT
OpenAI is still banging on about defeating rogue superhuman intelligence
Analyst Comments: OpenAI's decision to devote significant computational resources and effort to tackling the problem of AI alignment is both proactive and responsible, reflecting the organization's focus on the safe development of artificial general intelligence. The initiative addresses growing concerns about the potential risks of superintelligent AI, highlighting the importance of ethical considerations and safety precautions in AI research and development. However, the success of the endeavor is far from certain, given the current limitations of technology and our understanding of both AI and human values. The attempt to create an AI that can train other AIs without human intervention could raise new ethical and safety issues.
FROM THE MEDIA: OpenAI, the San Francisco-based AI startup, has announced that it will dedicate 20% of its processing capacity to develop methods to prevent future-generation AI systems from posing a risk to humanity. This initiative will be led by co-founder and chief scientist, Ilya Sutskever. The focus will be on AI alignment, ensuring AI systems that surpass human intelligence adhere to human intent. Techniques currently in use, like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), are challenging to scale and may introduce biases. As a solution, OpenAI is working on creating a "human-level automated alignment researcher," an AI system that can align other AI systems with human values without explicit human interaction.
READ THE STORY: The Register
US arms sales to Taiwan in the face of China
Analyst Comments: The arms sale to Taiwan marks a significant point in ongoing US-China-Taiwan relations. The move reflects the US's commitment to supporting Taiwan's self-defense against potential threats from China. However, it also risks exacerbating tensions with Beijing, which firmly believes in the One-China principle and views any foreign military support for Taiwan as a direct threat to its sovereignty. This scenario highlights the delicate balance of interests and national security concerns in the region. The potential for Beijing's sanctions against US defense companies indicates the economic implications of the conflict.
FROM THE MEDIA: China has expressed anger towards the US over a $1.8 billion arms sale to Taiwan, according to the US Department of Defense. The deal has heightened tensions between the three countries, with China viewing the US-Taiwan military relationship as turning the region into a "powder keg". China opposes foreign contact with Taiwan, which it views as part of its territory, while Taiwan asserts its self-governance. China has warned the US and Taiwan against increasing their political relations and arms sales, claiming it infringes on the One-China principle and could destabilize the Taiwan Strait. In response, Taiwan argues the arms deal will bolster its defenses against Beijing's long-range missiles. It's anticipated that Beijing will impose sanctions on several US defense companies involved in the arms sale to Taiwan, similar to the measures taken against Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Missile and Defense Company for previous arms sales to Taiwan.
READ THE STORY: Modern Diplomacy
Twitter Blue accounts fuel Ukraine War misinformation
Analyst Comments: This trend of misleading information highlights the role of social media in the propagation of misinformation and disinformation, particularly during times of conflict. The spread of these falsehoods could potentially shape public opinion and policymaking, further complicating an already complex geopolitical situation. While platforms like Twitter have systems in place to verify users and content, the presence of such false narratives underscores the need for enhanced fact-checking and disinformation mitigation efforts.
FROM THE MEDIA: Several misleading posts related to the ongoing Ukraine conflict have circulated widely on social media platforms like Twitter. Many are propagated by accounts with Twitter Blue subscriptions, allowing them to promote their content to other users. Among the falsehoods are claims that US weapons provided to Ukraine were used in French riots, that "baby factories" have been discovered in Ukraine, and that a missile attack in Kramatorsk was launched by Ukrainian forces. There have also been posts falsely stating that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has canceled elections in the country. These posts have been traced back to pro-Kremlin channels and sites known for spreading disinformation. Twitter has declined to comment on these instances of misinformation when contacted by BBC Verify.
READ THE STORY: BBC
India's space agency set to launch lunar lander, rover
Analyst Comments: This mission marks a significant milestone for ISRO and India's ambitions in space exploration, given the relatively low budget of the mission compared to similar lunar projects. ISRO's resilience in pushing for another lunar mission following the Chandrayaan-2 failure in 2019 is commendable. Success with Chandrayaan-3 could potentially position India among the select few nations - the USA, Russia, and China - that have achieved successful lunar landings. The inclusion of a propulsion module to act as a communication relay satellite represents a strategic approach to ensuring sustained contact and data transmission between the rover and mission control on Earth.
FROM THE MEDIA: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has announced the upcoming launch of its lunar mission, Chandrayaan-3, scheduled for July 14. The mission, budgeted at $74.5 million, aims to land near the moon's south pole and deploy a 26-kilogram rover equipped with various scientific instruments. The lander itself will host several instruments to study the lunar surface and atmosphere, while a propulsion module will stay in lunar orbit, acting as a communication relay satellite. The primary objectives of the mission include a safe landing on the moon, operating the rover on the lunar surface, and conducting experiments for 14 Earth days. This mission comes after the Chandrayaan-2 attempt in 2019, which experienced a failed landing due to a software glitch.
READ THE STORY: The Register
Austria’s ÖMV to Continue to Import Russian Gas
Analyst Comments: ÖMV's decision to continue purchasing Russian gas reflects the complex geopolitical dynamics and economic considerations facing European energy companies. While there's significant political pressure in Europe to reduce dependency on Russian energy due to geopolitical tensions, practical constraints and economic factors may override these concerns. Furthermore, ÖMV’s diversification plans, such as investments in the Neptun Deep gasfield in the Black Sea and a focus on green fuels and chemicals, suggest it's preparing for a future less reliant on Russian gas. This shift, along with similar moves by other energy companies, will likely shape the European energy landscape over the next few decades.
FROM THE MEDIA: Despite mounting tensions and an evolving energy market, Austrian energy group ÖMV intends to continue its primary gas imports from Russia this winter, according to CEO Alfred Stern. Stern clarified that the company has no plans to terminate its long-term supply agreement with Russia's Gazprom, citing the absence of Western sanctions against Russian gas. ÖMV, which is substantially owned by the Austrian government and generated €62bn in revenue last year, has been criticized for its dependence on Russian energy. While countries like Germany and the Czech Republic have eliminated Russian gas imports, Austria has made little progress in reducing its reliance on Russian gas.
READ THE STORY: FT
Southeast Asia’s Belt and Road Paved with Promises
Analyst Comments: China's BRI strategy clearly has the potential to bring significant benefits to the Southeast Asian region, particularly in terms of infrastructure development and economic growth. However, the issue of debt sustainability remains a significant concern, and the potential for increased political pressure from China also needs to be carefully considered. It's crucial for countries to carefully assess the potential benefits and risks associated with these projects before committing to them.
FROM THE MEDIA: China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar global infrastructure development strategy launched in 2013, has significantly reshaped Southeast Asia, strengthening economic ties and funding infrastructural projects across the region. While most countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) view the initiative as a valuable opportunity for growth, some nations have encountered significant debt issues, most notably Sri Lanka. Many ASEAN nations have benefited from the BRI. In Laos, China is funding a railway connecting the capital, Vientiane, to Kunming in southwest China. Cambodia is expecting a highway, a communications satellite, and a new international airport, while Timor-Leste has received investment in a highway, a port, and a national power grid. Indonesia's mass transit and railway systems have also gained from the BRI, and Vietnam now has a new tramline. The potential downsides to accepting BRI investments include falling into a debt trap, especially for smaller economies, and becoming more vulnerable to political pressure from China. It's particularly crucial for countries such as Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Timor-Leste, which are reliant on China's lending terms, to weigh up the potential costs and benefits carefully. However, if these nations can manage their debts effectively, the BRI could continue to boost the region's economy.
READ THE STORY: News Room
Killnet as a private military hacking company? For now, it's probably just a dream
Analyst Comments: Killnet's ambitious plan to transition into a private military hacking company, if realized, could escalate the intensity and sophistication of cyberattacks, particularly against Western targets. However, the feasibility of this transformation is doubtful given the speculative nature of Killnet's claimed successes and the lack of concrete evidence linking the group to the Russian state. Their use of media for promoting their brand and activities suggests a keen understanding of the power of public perception, which, combined with their hacking capabilities, does make them a potential threat, albeit one that needs more substantiation. Despite their uneven track record, the attention they've garnered, their apparent capacity for collaboration, and their open anti-Western stance should not be underestimated.
FROM THE MEDIA: The pro-Moscow hacking group, Killnet, established in October 2021, has gained global attention due to its provocative content and cyberattacks on Western targets. Despite doubts over the legitimacy of many of its claims, the group has become a cause for concern, with plans to transform into a private military hacking company on behalf of the Russian state. This transformation, orchestrated by the group's founder, Killmilk, includes recruiting more hackers and creating "The Dark School," a training initiative for potential members. However, links between Killnet and the Russian government remain unsubstantiated. Killnet is also keen on anti-Western cyberattacks, with particular attention to NATO and government agencies of countries imposing sanctions on Russia.
READ THE STORY: The Record
Dole, Pepsi bottler issue more info on recent cyberattacks
Analyst Comments: The recent breaches involving Dole and Pepsi Bottling Ventures underscore the vulnerability of corporations to cyberattacks, particularly ransomware. The attack on Dole significantly disrupted operations and resulted in substantial financial losses, demonstrating the tangible impact cyberattacks can have on businesses. The incident involving Pepsi Bottling Ventures also highlighted the potential for widespread personal data exposure in such attacks.
FROM THE MEDIA: Multinational food processing company, Dole, and Pepsi Bottling Ventures, the main U.S. bottler for Pepsi, have released more details regarding cybersecurity incidents earlier this year. Dole confirmed a ransomware attack in February resulted in the access of employee data, affecting approximately 3,885 individuals. The attack forced a temporary shutdown of several production plants and incurred costs of $10.5 million. Despite this, the company does not believe the employee data will be misused fraudulently. Pepsi Bottling Ventures also disclosed that unauthorized activity on certain internal IT systems led to data breaches in December 2022. The accessed information included personal and sensitive data, such as names, addresses, financial account information, and health insurance claims. The number of victims was later revised from 17,000 to 28,000.
READ THE STORY: The Record
Vishing Goes High-Tech: New 'Letscall' Malware Employs Voice Traffic Routing
Analyst Comments: The emergence of "Letscall" underscores the increasing sophistication of cybercriminal tactics and their exploitation of advanced technologies. The multi-stage attack, combined with advanced evasion techniques, demonstrates the level of knowledge these criminals have about Android security and voice routing technologies. The fact that they have established a call center with trained operators further underscores their resources and organization. Even though the attacks are currently concentrated in South Korea, the techniques used could easily be applied in other regions. This case highlights the need for continuous improvement in cybersecurity measures and for users to stay vigilant about potential scams.
FROM THE MEDIA: Researchers have warned about a sophisticated form of voice phishing (vishing) called "Letscall," which is currently targeting individuals in South Korea. The attackers trick victims into downloading malicious apps from a fake Google Play Store website, which then reroute incoming calls to a call center run by the criminals. Here, trained operators pose as bank employees to obtain sensitive information. The malware is notable for its use of advanced technologies like VOIP, WebRTC, and protocols like STUN and TURN to reroute voice traffic. It also utilizes sophisticated evasion techniques to avoid detection. The group behind "Letscall" includes Android developers, designers, and developers, along with call operators specializing in social engineering attacks.
READ THE STORY: THN
Solomon Islands Leader Visits Security Partner China With Focus on Infrastructure
Analyst Comments: This visit reflects the Solomon Islands' strategy of balancing its ties with global powers to meet its own development needs. By emphasizing neutrality and focusing on infrastructure development, Sogavare appears to be leveraging geopolitical rivalries to secure aid and investment from multiple sources, including China, the U.S., and Japan. The relationship between the Solomon Islands and China, particularly with the involvement of Huawei, might trigger further apprehension in the West due to strategic and security implications. In the context of the broader China-U.S. competition and the shifting geopolitics of the Pacific region, such actions can have substantial ramifications.
FROM THE MEDIA: Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is visiting China, marking his first visit since a security pact that has caused concern among Western nations such as the United States and Australia. Sogavare has emphasized the importance of neutrality in the context of escalating China-U.S. competition, stating that his nation's priorities are development and infrastructure. Chinese telecom company Huawei is in the process of constructing a cellular network in the Solomon Islands, which is financed by a $66 million loan from the Chinese EXIM bank. In 2019, the Solomon Islands switched their diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing, and they now have one of the most robust relationships with China in the region. Sogavare's visit will involve the inauguration of the nation's embassy, meetings with Chinese companies, and tours of Jiangsu and Guangdong.
READ THE STORY: US NEWS
Sequoia China’s push into Singapore sets up fight against Indian arm
Analyst Comments: This development signifies a new phase in Sequoia's strategy, characterized by potential competition between its separate units. The move by Sequoia's China unit into Singapore indicates its interest in the growing Southeast Asian market and a desire to support Chinese founders who are establishing international businesses in the region. Given the geopolitical context, it seems that Sequoia's Chinese and Indian units are expanding their footprint to mitigate risks associated with US-China tensions. However, the split and subsequent competition could also lead to internal conflicts and confusion in the market.
FROM THE MEDIA: Sequoia Capital's China unit, HongShan, is planning to expand its operations into Singapore, putting it in direct competition with the venture capital group's other division, Peak XV Partners, which already operates in the region. HongShan is known for managing $56bn in assets and making early investments in Alibaba and ByteDance. The move comes as Sequoia plans to split into three separate entities by 2024. Despite the firm's denial that rising US-China tensions are the cause, the separation has led to market confusion and portfolio conflicts. The split will result in the US, China, and India divisions no longer sharing branding, back-office services, and profits.
READ THE STORY: FT
South Korean motor lubricant exports to Russia surge after oil majors retreat
Analyst Comments: The increased exports of motor lubricants by South Korean companies to Russia amidst the pullback of Western companies underscores how geopolitics can create business opportunities and challenges. The dual-use nature of these lubricants — for both civilian and military applications — raises ethical and geopolitical questions. This case illustrates how international business practices can sometimes intersect with conflict situations and geopolitics, forcing companies to navigate complex situations and consider not just economic, but also ethical and reputational risks.
FROM THE MEDIA: South Korean exports of motor lubricants, which have potential military uses, to Russia more than doubled last year, to $229mn. This surge occurred after Western oil majors, such as Total, Shell, and BP, reduced their operations in Russia in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine. SK Enmove, a subsidiary of South Korean conglomerate SK Group, and GS Caltex, a joint venture between South Korea’s GS Group and Chevron, have been identified as the primary South Korean beneficiaries of the Western companies’ withdrawal.
READ THE STORY: FT
Using an Old Satellite to see the Earth in a New Light
Analyst Comments: This advancement in DIY satellite tracking reveals how accessible satellite signal interception has become for hobbyists. By using inexpensive, off-the-shelf components, hobbyists are able to achieve feats previously reserved for well-funded organizations or institutions. While this presents an exciting opportunity for enthusiasts to engage with space technologies, it also raises potential concerns about the security of satellite communications and the possible misuse of intercepted data.
FROM THE MEDIA: Hobbyist satellite hunters have been increasingly intercepting signals from satellites to view real-time weather images, using off-the-shelf software, homebrew antennas, and Software Defined Radios (SDRs). Typically, enthusiasts focus on satellite downlinks in the L-band or VHF portions of the spectrum, which are within easy reach of most RTL-SDR dongles. However, an enthusiast known as [dereksgc] has pushed the boundaries by tapping into S-band telemetry from the obsolete Coriolis satellite. At 2.2 GHz, this is just outside the high end of an RTL-SDR. [dereksgc] overcame this by using a knock-off HackRF SDR and pairing it with a self-designed wideband low-noise amplifier (LNA). The dish antenna was also homemade. Despite the distortion in images, this is a notable feat for hobbyist satellite exploration and demonstrates the potential of low-cost, DIY satellite tracking systems.
READ THE STORY: HackaDay
Items of interest
Russia’s Notorious Troll Farm Disbands
Analyst Comments: The closure of the Internet Research Agency could have significant implications for global information security and political discourse, especially considering its history of influencing public opinion and mediating in foreign elections. While it's uncertain how this will impact future disinformation campaigns, it is a temporary setback for Russian cyber activities. In the social media space, the rapid success of Threads despite privacy concerns reveals a willingness among many users to prioritize usability and convenience over privacy. This trend could inform future app development and marketing strategies, as well as policy discussions around privacy and data sharing. The proposed U.S. law prohibiting intelligence agencies from buying sensitive data reflects a growing emphasis on privacy and data protection in policymaking. If passed, it could set a significant precedent for other nations grappling with similar issues.
FROM THE MEDIA: Yevgeny Prighozin, the head of the notorious Wagner Group, has shut down the infamous troll farm, the Internet Research Agency (IRA), following a failed coup against the Russian government. The closing of the IRA signifies a significant shift in Russian disinformation operations. In separate news, Twitter's new limit on daily tweets has opened the door for Mark Zuckerberg's Threads app to gain popularity. The app gained 30 million users in 24 hours, despite concerns over Meta's privacy policies. U.S. lawmakers are trying to prevent intelligence agencies from buying sensitive data about Americans.
READ THE STORY: Wired
Receiving images from a US DoD satellite (Coriolis) || Satellite reception (Video)
FROM THE MEDIA: In this episode, the focus is on the Coriolis satellite, a technology demonstration platform launched in 2003 and operated by the United States Department of Defense. The main instrument on board is the Windsat radiometer, which images the Earth in the microwave range, specifically between 6.8 and 37 gigahertz. The data is stored and transmitted when the satellite passes above a ground station. The video will demonstrate how to receive this data, which is still operational and can be received 20 years after the satellite's launch.
Receiving voice transmissions from GPS satellites || Satellite reception pt.10 (Video)
FROM THE MEDIA: The video discusses how GPS satellites often broadcast plain, unencrypted FM voice transmissions, similar to those you would hear from a broadcast FM radio station or a walkie-talkie. The reason for this is linked to a system called SARSAT, an international collaborative project that places instruments on navigation and other satellites to receive and process distress and emergency transmissions from locator beacons.
These open-source products are reviewed by analysts at InfoDom Securities, providing possible context about current media trends related to the realm of cyber security. The stories selected cover a broad array of cyber threats and are intended to aid readers in framing key publicly discussed threats and overall situational awareness. InfoDom Securities does not endorse any third-party claims made in their original material or related links on their sites; the opinions expressed by third parties are theirs alone. For further questions, please contact InfoDom Securities at dominanceinformation@gmail.com.