Saturday, April 15, 2023 // (IG): BB // Financial Enabler // Coffee for Bob
China Is Studying Russia’s Economic Playbook for Conflict
Analyst Comments: The use of selective economic and diplomatic statecraft to counter U.S.-led resistance, as observed in Russia's case, could be adapted by China to achieve its objectives related to Taiwan. While an outright military invasion of Taiwan could have tremendous costs for China, the Russian case has shown that this does not necessarily make such an action prohibitive. Therefore, it is important for the United States and its allies to strengthen their political and economic ties with Taiwan and other regional allies, such as Japan and Australia, to counter China's efforts. It is also critical to continue providing political and military support for Taiwan to prevent China from taking military action against the island.
FROM THE MEDIA: The escalating tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan have raised concerns about the potential for conflict. China is closely observing Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own purposes and drawing lessons from Moscow's strategy in the conflict. Rather than solely focusing on military intervention, China could be adapting Moscow's use of selective economic and diplomatic statecraft to counter any U.S.-led resistance in its efforts to absorb Taiwan. The United States political and military support for Ukraine has slowed down and even reversed some of Russia's territorial gains, proving to Moscow that Western solidarity with Ukraine is not easily broken. However, the attempted isolation of Russia from the international system, particularly economically, has been much less successful. China could use economic pressure, maritime interdictions, or manipulating Taiwan's supply chain via cargo inspections and port redirection to achieve its objectives related to Taiwan in more subtle ways. Russia's war in Ukraine has shown that an outright military invasion of Taiwan may not necessarily be prohibitive, but it is more likely that China will seek to achieve its goals through non-military means.
READ THE STORY: FP
Geopolitical Chessboard: De-Dollarization and the Battle for Currency Supremacy
Analyst Comments: The trend towards de-dollarization represents a significant shift in the global financial landscape, driven by a growing perception that the US dollar is being weaponized as a tool of foreign policy. Countries and regions, including prominent economies such as Russia, China, India, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, are actively seeking ways to decrease their dependence on the US dollar and explore alternative ways of conducting international trade and investment. While de-dollarization efforts could potentially challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the international financial system and weaken the effectiveness of US sanctions, there are also challenges and risks associated with this trend.
FROM THE MEDIA: The global financial landscape has undergone a shift in recent years, as countries and regions seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar through de-dollarization efforts. This trend has been driven by factors such as concerns over the weaponization of the US dollar through sanctions, geopolitical realignments, and the emergence of alternative financial infrastructures. While de-dollarization could challenge the dominance of the US dollar and weaken the effectiveness of US sanctions, it also presents challenges and risks, such as potential economic implications for countries heavily reliant on the US dollar, and the interconnectedness of the global financial system. Careful consideration and coordination among countries would be necessary to navigate the complexities of de-dollarization and its potential implications for the global financial landscape.
READ THE STORY: ModernDiplomacy
Cognitive Warfare: Maneuvering in the Human Dimension
Analyst Comments: The scenario presented in the article is fictional, but it is used to illustrate the point that cognitive warfare is a real and growing threat. The article argues that the United States needs to develop and implement a concept that treats the cognitive dimension as offensive and defensive maneuver space. To achieve this, the article suggests that the United States needs to establish a functional understanding of cognitive warfare and its potential effects, explore approaches to cognitive warfare being developed by U.S. competitors and adversaries, and use the tenets of maneuver warfare as a framework for gaining the initiative in the cognitive dimension.
FROM THE MEDIA: The article discusses the emerging threat of cognitive warfare and its potential effects. The author emphasizes the need for the US to address threats and opportunities in the cognitive dimension and develop a concept that treats the cognitive dimension as offensive and defensive maneuver space. The article defines cognitive warfare and explains its evolution. The article highlights two approaches, cognitive domain operations and coordinated chaos, and their integration with the tenets of maneuver warfare. The article concludes by calling for a concept that addresses the rapidly changing cognitive landscape to enable the US to employ critical emerging capabilities and develop methods to defend against them.
READ THE STORY: USNI
Russian SolarWinds Culprits Launch Fresh Barrage of Espionage Cyberattacks
Analyst Comments: The ongoing spear-phishing campaign by Russian state-sponsored hacker group Nobelium/APT29 targeting foreign ministries and diplomats from NATO-member states highlights the group's ongoing efforts to conduct state-sponsored espionage. The use of sophisticated malware and techniques, such as spear-phishing emails impersonating embassies of European countries and using the HTML-smuggling technique, underscores the group's capability to conduct cyber espionage and cause significant harm. The warning issued by the Polish Military Counterintelligence Service and CERT Polska highlights the importance of vigilance and implementing configuration changes to disrupt the delivery mechanism used by the group. The attacks on Canadian infrastructure also demonstrate the group's ability to cause disruption and its intentions to target Western nations.
FROM THE MEDIA: Russian state-sponsored hacker group Nobelium, also known as APT29, has been identified as the perpetrator of a new spear-phishing campaign targeting foreign ministries and diplomats from NATO-member states, among other targets in the European Union and Africa. The campaign, which follows attacks on Canadian infrastructure also believed to be linked to Russia, begins with well-conceived spear-phishing emails impersonating embassies of European countries. The emails contain an invitation to a meeting or to work together on documents, which directs the recipient to a malicious site loaded with Envyscout malware, downloaded on the victim's device using the HTML-smuggling technique. Once compromised, the group uses modified versions of Snowyamber downloader, Halfrig, and Quarterrig, all designed to infiltrate the diplomatic corps of countries supportive of Ukraine.
READ THE STORY: DarkReading
Meet the hacker armies on Ukraine's cyber front line
Analyst Comments: The article offers an in-depth analysis of the cyber war between Ukraine and Russia, revealing how hacktivism has caused the boundaries between state-sanctioned attacks and unofficial activism to become blurred. The author presents evidence of Ukrainian hacktivists and their activities, illustrating the scale of the conflict. However, it should be noted that, as the Ukrainian volunteers are now attacking nation-states, they may be viewed as foreign adversaries and may be subject to actions taken by the other side. The article also highlights Russian hacktivist groups and their alleged links to the Russian military. The ethical implications of hacktivism and the potential for escalation are briefly discussed as well.
FROM THE MEDIA: The lines between official military cyber-attacks and unofficial vigilante hacking have become blurred, and both sides have hacker armies. The article highlights the case of Oleksandr, a Ukrainian hacker who has helped to temporarily disable hundreds of Russian websites, disrupt services at dozens of banks, and defaced websites with pro-Ukraine messages. The article also discusses the case of the Russian hacktivist gang Killnet, which has a Telegram group of nearly 100,000 and is alleged to be working directly with the cyber section of the Russian military. The article raises concerns about the targeting of civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and energy grids, and highlights the absence of a Geneva Convention for cyber warfare.
READ THE STORY: BBC
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