Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 // (IG): BB // GITHUB // SN R&D
U.S.–China Trade Showdown Highlights Fragile Economic Deterrence
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): The latest trade flare-up between the U.S. and China reveals how dangerously interdependent the two economies have become. While President Trump threatens sweeping tariffs and tech sanctions, Beijing is weaponizing rare earth and battery exports. Both sides now hold economic chokepoints over the other—but this “mutually assured disruption” creates instability, not deterrence.
Analyst Comments: Washington thinks tariffs will bend Beijing; Beijing thinks supply chain controls will make D.C. back off. They’re both wrong. Each escalation leads the other to dig in harder, creating a feedback loop of distrust. Neither economy wants full-blown decoupling, but both are building the levers to pull if forced. Defenders and policy teams should expect regulatory and compliance headaches across semiconductors, EV batteries, and rare earths—regardless of whether a superficial truce is struck.
READ THE STORY: The Economist
Chinese APT ‘Jewelbug’ Infiltrated Russian IT Firm for Five Months, Exposing Supply Chain Risk
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Chinese threat actor Jewelbug (a.k.a. CL-STA-0049 / Earth Alux / REF7707) quietly breached a Russian IT service provider from January to May 2025, gaining access to internal code repositories and software build systems. The intrusion—confirmed by Symantec—raises the risk of future supply chain attacks against Russian customers and marks an expansion of China’s cyber operations beyond its traditional focus regions.
Analyst Comments: Despite growing military and economic ties between Beijing and Moscow, this breach proves that Russia is not off-limits for Chinese espionage operations. The targeting of IT service providers signals an intent to use them as lateral entry points—mirroring tactics used in the SolarWinds compromise. Jewelbug’s toolkit blends stealth (renamed cdb.exe, scheduled tasks, event log clearing) with abuse of cloud services like OneDrive and Microsoft Graph API to maintain persistent access while minimizing forensic visibility. The use of BYOVD (Bring Your Own Vulnerable Driver) tactics further shows a growing willingness to exploit kernel-level vulnerabilities for endpoint evasion.
READ THE STORY: THN
Chinese State Hackers Infiltrated UK Government Systems for a Decade, Officials Say
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): The latest trade flare-up between the U.S. and China reveals how dangerously interdependent the two economies have become. While President Trump threatens sweeping tariffs and tech sanctions, Beijing is weaponizing rare earth and battery exports. Both sides now hold economic chokepoints over the other—but this “mutually assured disruption” creates instability, not deterrence.
Analyst Comments: Ten years of persistent access suggest systemic security gaps and likely operational compromise across multiple departments. Even if top secret data was untouched, the material accessed—diplomatic cables, draft policies, and secure comms—can still enable insight, leverage, or disruption. The fact that part of the breach reportedly stemmed from a data center sold to a China-linked entity raises questions about oversight and critical infrastructure protection. With MI5 now calling China a “pacing threat” and UK cyberattacks up 50%, this may finally catalyze a policy shift in Whitehall—though the delay in formally designating China a national security threat remains a blind spot.
READ THE STORY: Bloomberg
South Korean Lawmaker Pushes to Purge Japanese Military Terminology from Armed Forces
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Rep. Hwang Hee, a South Korea’s National Assembly Defense Committee member, urges the Ministry of National Defense to eliminate lingering Japanese military terminology embedded in the Republic of Korea Armed Forces. The move aims to modernize military language, shed colonial-era vestiges, and align terminology with standardized Korean.
Analyst Comments: While military slang and jargon may seem benign, their origins in Imperial Japanese doctrine are symbolically potent in South Korea, where memories of colonization still shape public discourse. Language reform in the armed forces aligns with long-standing decolonization efforts and signals generational change. It may also face quiet resistance within the ranks, where legacy terminology is deeply embedded in training and operational norms.
READ THE STORY: Defense Blog
China’s Asymmetric Playbook for Targeting U.S. Aircraft Carriers: Beyond Ballistic Missiles
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): China believes it has developed a layered, multi-domain strategy to disable or destroy U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. This strategy combines traditional missile strikes with unconventional methods such as underwater drones, satellite-based wake tracking, and cyber sabotage. This strategy reflects a shift from brute-force confrontation to asymmetric disruption, aiming to erode U.S. maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific without triggering full-scale war.
Analyst Comments: They’re fielding a diverse toolkit to confuse, saturate, and overwhelm a carrier strike group’s defenses. Some of these capabilities—like stealth submarines armed with Yu-10 torpedoes or hybrid missile-torpedo weapons—are conventional but advanced. Others, like satellite-based carrier wake detection and kamikaze sea drones, push into novel territory. Add cyber sabotage and port-side attacks to the mix, and the PRC is clearly probing every vulnerability in the U.S. carrier ecosystem—from open ocean to drydock.
READ THE STORY: National Security Journal
US–China Port Fee Standoff Escalates Trade Tensions Amid Maritime Power Struggle
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): The U.S. and China have imposed reciprocal port tariffs on each other’s vessels, adding a new front to their widening trade conflict. These fees target Chinese- and American-built, owned, or operated ships and could cost global shippers billions. Analysts warn that the tit-for-tat move signals deeper decoupling and adds volatility to already strained global trade lanes.
Analyst Comments: Trump’s executive order aims to curb China’s dominance in global shipbuilding and assert U.S. maritime sovereignty. Beijing’s fast and proportionate response shows it’s not bluffing either. Both sides now have tools to disrupt maritime logistics—and the will to use them. COSCO, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd are already rerouting vessels, and the quiet scramble to avoid the fees will drive up shipping costs and uncertainty. For defenders in supply chain risk, expect this to spill into sanctions, export controls, and sector-specific retaliation beyond just ports.
READ THE STORY: Al Jazeera
China’s Rare Earth Export Rules Hit U.S. Tech—and Expose Strategic Gaps
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): China’s sweeping new restrictions on rare earth exports now require Beijing’s approval for any product—globally—that contains even trace amounts of Chinese critical minerals. The move delivers a sharp blow to U.S. tech and defense supply chains and signals a more confident, less dependent China using asymmetric leverage to counter Trump’s latest tariff threats.
Analyst Comments: China is weaponizing its near-monopoly on critical minerals not just to retaliate, but to shape global compliance with its export regime. The U.S. has no comparable tool—Trump’s response—100% tariff threats—lands loud but not deep. Meanwhile, Beijing is coordinating sanctions, tightening export controls, and signaling to allies that it has staying power in this economic contest. Xi’s strategy is long-term, deliberate, and systemic. Trump’s remains reactive and fragmented. The genuine concern for security and supply chain teams is less about this week’s escalation and more about the precedent: global manufacturers may now need Chinese permission to ship to U.S. labs. That’s sovereignty-level leverage.
READ THE STORY: Financial Review
Sikorsky Debuts U-Hawk: Cockpit-Free Black Hawk Variant Becomes Autonomous Cargo Drone
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Sikorsky has unveiled the U-Hawk, a fully autonomous cargo drone derived from the UH-60L Black Hawk, at AUSA 2025. The crewless aircraft removes the cockpit entirely to expand cargo capacity by 25% and supports a range of long-range, high-endurance missions using the company’s MATRIX autonomy system and tablet-based controls. First flight is slated for 2026.
Analyst Comments: By repurposing the battle-tested UH-60 platform, Sikorsky offers the Pentagon a plug-and-play cargo drone that bypasses the long lead times and cost overhead of clean-sheet designs. Removing the cockpit to make room for oversized payloads like HIMARS pods or modular drone swarms is smart, and the clamshell nose/rear ramp combo adds serious flexibility. Expect this to gain traction in contested logistics scenarios where keeping crews out of harm’s way is priority #1—think Indo-Pacific island resupply or casualty evacuation under fire.
READ THE STORY: Defense Blog
Flax Typhoon Maintains Stealth Access via Compromised ArcGIS Server
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Chinese APT group Flax Typhoon (a.k.a. RedJuliett or Ethereal Panda) exploited a compromised ArcGIS Server instance to establish long-term persistence in a targeted network. The group covertly deployed a malicious Java server extension to create a stealthy backdoor, which has remained undetected for over a year, according to a new analysis from ReliaQuest.
Analyst Comments: By targeting ArcGIS—a widely deployed geo-mapping platform often overlooked in security monitoring—Flax Typhoon avoided traditional detection controls. The attackers’ ability to persist for over a year highlights their operational discipline and the ongoing risk of soft targets in public-facing applications. It’s a reminder that APTs aren’t just hitting zero-days—exploiting misconfigurations and weak credential hygiene. The weaponization of trusted extensions like Java server objects should prompt defenders to reevaluate monitoring on non-core but high-value services like ArcGIS.
READ THE STORY: SC MEDIA
Nation-State Actors Breach F5 Networks, Steal Source Code and Vulnerability Data
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): F5 Networks confirmed a nation-state cyber operation achieved long-term persistence inside its network, exfiltrating source code and internal vulnerability data related to its BIG-IP product line. The breach, discovered in August and disclosed only after a DOJ-approved delay, poses significant supply chain and exploitation risks for F5 customers worldwide.
Analyst Comments: That’s pre-positioning for future exploitation. F5’s BIG-IP appliances sit deep in customer network stacks, making any compromise a potential foothold for lateral movement or traffic manipulation. Combine that with reports tying the Chinese APT group Velvet Ant to prior F5 targeting, and the incident looks like a long-term strategic intrusion, not a smash-and-grab. Defenders running F5 gear need to assume compromise, audit configs, and check for signs of tampering, especially post-exploitation persistence mechanisms.
READ THE STORY: Bloomberg
China Steps Up Cyber and Influence Warfare Against Taiwan, Hits 2.8M Daily Intrusions
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Taiwan’s National Security Bureau reports an average of 2.8 million cyber intrusions daily—up 17% from 2024—as part of an intensifying Chinese campaign combining espionage, data theft, and AI-driven disinformation. Microsoft warns the new TTPs used against Taiwan could be repurposed globally.
Analyst Comments: The uptick in AI-generated memes, videos, and fake news targeting Taiwan’s government shows China’s strategic focus on psychological operations and domestic destabilization, not just espionage. Disinformation flows through a hybrid network of state media, dark web channels, and internet troll farms, giving campaigns both scale and plausible deniability. This is textbook hybrid warfare—with Taiwan as the testbed. Western democracies should treat these tactics as export-ready and start hardening digital infrastructure and public discourse.
READ THE STORY: SC Media
Items of interest
Trump Floats Cooking Oil Trade Ban with China Amid Soybean Spat
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): President Trump is threatening to cut trade ties with China over used cooking oil (UCO), calling Beijing’s soybean import cuts an “Economically Hostile Act.” But traders say the move is symbolic—U.S. imports of Chinese cooking oil have already dropped 65% this year due to tariffs and Chinese tax rebate cuts.
Analyst Comments: Trump claimed on social media that China’s soybean buying cuts hurt U.S. farmers and called used cooking oil “something we can easily produce ourselves.” However, according to Reuters, U.S. cooking oil imports from China dropped to 290,690 tons in Jan–Aug 2025, down from 1.27 million tons in 2024. Two Chinese traders said the U.S. market is no longer a focus, with most exports now going to Singapore and the EU. Analysts called Trump’s announcement “not escalatory,” with the UCO trade paling compared to the $12B soybean export market.
READ THE STORY: Reuters
Trump floats cooking oil ban over China’s soybean cut (Video)
FROM THE MEDIA: President Trump is threatening to block cooking oil imports from China after Beijing pulled back from buying US soybeans.
Why Soybeans & Cooking Oil Matter to U.S. (Video)
FROM THE MEDIA: China and U.S. trade tensions have continued into a 2nd straight week, with President Trump threatening a cooking oil embargo. Kevin Green joins Diane King Hall to make sense of the latest tensions taking shape, and what it means for market volatility in general. On the earnings front, KG sees some tailwinds for ASML (ASML), particularly for its smartphone and AI business segments.
The selected stories cover a broad array of cyber threats and are intended to aid readers in framing key publicly discussed threats and overall situational awareness. InfoDom Securities does not endorse any third-party claims made in its original material or related links on its sites; the opinions expressed by third parties are theirs alone. For further questions, please contact InfoDom Securities at dominanceinformation@gmail.com.